Ken's 3rd Quarter Recap 2020

October 14, 2020

It was a very MOVING quarter.

1 – Lesley and I moved into our hopefully forever home in July

2 – Jones Financial Group moved into our office for the next two years on Oct 1

3 – The market made some…you guessed it…moves!  Feel free to slap your knee at this juncture.

 

I guess I’ll take each of those in turn.

 

One

The house move was officially completed just last week as we unpacked our final box and got the second car in the two car garage.  It took 81 days.  Not that impressive but not that slow either.  The major motivation was our “Open House Warming”.  That title feels like it would be a sweet “Before and After” category on Wheel of FortuneTM.  The intent was to get local family/friends/neighbors to see the place but only stay for a bit so we can keep the contact tracing to a minimum.

 

(Sidebar)  I hope you and yours have remained safe and well through this continuing health crisis.  I hope for everybody’s sake it abates soon.  I have a sneaky feeling it will be less dominant in the news cycle come November 4th.  Not that it will disappear mind you, but I predict it will be far less politicized and everybody can finally get on board with easing some restrictions here and abiding by some other restrictions there in the name of the greater good.

 

But back to the house – we love it.  I was one of the first of my friends to buy a house, but one of the last to get a “big boy house” as I like to call it.  Lesley has been busy decorating and I’ve been mildly impressed at her restraint.  I was mentally preparing for her to host her own TLC show and get completely carried away but we haven’t broken the bank (so far).  On my end I haven’t had a property to take care of in what seems like forever, but it’s really only been three years or so.  I’ve been busy trying to figure out how to keep up with the wonderful landscaping we walked into, it was a heck of a selling point to me.  I’m going to try to do it on my own for at least a year but that mulch job come spring is probably going to break me.  I did have a landscaping job for two summers while in college but I must make sure to remember I’m not 20 anymore.

 

The girls love their playroom and transitioned as well as could be expected to having their own rooms when we moved in.  They enjoy patrolling the downstairs and getting into anything they can.  Lenny has taken a particular liking to Mom’s new makeup drawers and Aggie LOVES her play tent.  Lenny has been walking well for a good bit but Aggie just doesn’t seem interested.  She can do it, it’s just a matter of her deciding when.

 

Lastly – our main summer vacation plans were cancelled due to COVID, but we were able to sneak in a week in Hilton Head.  The 8 cousins & second cousins - 6 of which were one year old at the time - managed to stay still for this shot (click link below).  The stars aligned and the pic was snapped within 15 seconds by some minor miracle.  See if you can pick out our two! 

8 in a line! 

Don’t ask us about the drive down though unless you’re masochistic.  We did break up the drive back and that seemed to go a little better.  It was a good idea on paper.

 

Two

So right after we got the garage unpacked and the last box broken down, Jones Financial Group moved from 5027 E Trindle Rd all the way to 5275 E Trindle Rd.  Literally one mile down the road.  Regardless, it’s still moving and this guy has had his fill of it recently. 

 

JFG has 6 members in the team and had outgrown the old office.  We are expanding and this space will give us the room to hire / partner with more folks without doubling up in offices.  We also have more than one room to hold client meetings in so the meeting schedule will be less of a bother once we ramp up in person meetings again.  May that day come soon.

 

The most exciting part of this move is that the current plan is to build a brand new office on the old site at 5027 E Trindle and move back there in late 2022.  Hoping all the ducks line up for that one!

 

We are all moved in but are still putting the finishing touches on.  We hope to have an Open House / Grand Opening by the holidays – stay tuned on that one.

 

Three

3rd Quarter Market Snapshot

Index:                                    Close 6/30/20      Close 9/30/20   3rd Qtr 2020 +/-     2020 +/-

Dow Jones Industrial Avg      25,812.88             27,781.70         7.63%                  (2.65%)

S&P 500                                   3,100.29               3,363.00         8.47%                   4.09%

NASDAQ                                10,058.77             11,167.51        11.02%                 24.46%

 

The DJIA came within a few percentage points of it’s all time high (Feb 12th 2020) on Sept 2nd before pulling back a bit.   The S&P 500 and NASDAQ meanwhile did hit their new records on Sept 2nd.  Both also pulled back in the rest of September but all three have been recently rallying again.  So here we are closing in on all time highs once more and many casual investors are asking wait, what?  Isn’t the economy mostly shut down?  Isn’t COVID still a big problem?  Why are stocks rising?

 

All great questions and I don’t have the answers, but I can venture some conjecture.  (I wonder if Dr. Suess ever used that rhyme?  Quite proud of that one actually 😊.) 

  • First, markets are typically forward thinking, so they are always pricing in where they “think” things will be in the near to intermediate term.
  • Second, if there are too many traders taking positions that would profit from a market decline, it rarely actually materializes. Short interest has been steady throughout this rise and may even be considered a contributing factor to the bulls’ recent run. 
  • Third, a second stimulus bill, although delayed and heavily politicized, seems likely to pass at some point. Markets seem to have that priced in.
  • Lastly and almost certainly the biggest factor is the Fed’s continuing easy money policy. The old adage “Don’t fight the Fed” has thus far proven sage advice yet again.

 

I’ll be keeping an eye on things through election season but I do like to remind folks that the markets go through this once every four years and to a lesser extent every two years.  It is not the markets first election rodeo.  By the way, are folks supposed to know everything by their second rodeo?  Seems like an awful steep learning curve.  Alas, I digress yet again.  The point I was trying to make is stay calm – things may get bumpy for a bit but we’ve been there before.  However please call me if you’re feeling unsure about things.  I’m always happy to chat.

(Source – Broadridge Investor Communication Solutions, Inc. - Quarterly Market Review: Dec 2019-Sep 2020.  Copyright 2020, Broadridge Investor Communication Solutions, Inc., All rights reserved.)

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

 

Business update

So on top of the office move I’ve introduced my first Vlog (Video blog) on our JFG Blog.  Jonesfg.wradvisors.com/blog

Episode 2 will come out in a couple weeks.  Let me know what you think of them.  The more positive feedback I get the more likely I am to keep them coming!

 

Events

If you haven’t received word yet – one of my most popular client appreciation events is back for the 5th consecutive year – the 20 minute photo session!  Many clients use these for their annual holiday cards.  We may yet have a few spots remaining for this year’s event which is Sunday Oct 25th at Lower Allen Community Park, so let me know ASAP if you are interested!

Here’s to hoping we are able to get some events on the calendar in 2021 that aren’t limited by COVID restrictions.

 

Have a safe and happy 4th quarter and may we all emerge into a glorious 2021 no worse for the wear!

Ken

This is meant for educational purposes only.  It should not be considered investment advice, nor does it constitute a recommendation to take a particular course of action. Please consult with a financial professional regarding your personal situation prior to making any financial related decisions.

LPL Financial and Jones Financial Group are not affiliated with Wheel of Fortune, Dr. Suess or Lower Allen Community Park.