Ken's 3rd Quarter 2019 Recap

October 04, 2019

Ken’s 3rd Quarter 2019 Recap

Note this is the last quarterly recap that will be emailed out - if you would like to continue to read them, friend me on Facebook, connect on LinkedIn or check the JFG Blog within the first two weeks of each new quarter.


Market recap

The 3rd quarter was fairly choppy but ended slightly positive on 2 of the 3 major U.S. indices.  The stock markets seem to continue to ignore the daily goings on in Washington, and the rest of the world to a large extent, with one exception: U.S. - China trade relations do seem to move markets up with positive news and down with negative news on a weekly and sometimes daily basis.  Factors that seemed to be largely ignored by markets (maybe since most weren't really surprises) were The Federal Reserve rate cut, Honk Kong protests, Iranian antics, the ongoing Brexit battle and a phone call to Ukraine leading to an impeachment probe.

I had a couple folks reaching out to me during the recent bouts of volatility - feel free to do so anytime of course - and I explained my current thoughts, long term approach and that volatility can actually be a good thing when invested with active fund managers. 

Looking forward, the major story I foresee is the 2020 elections.  As election season really begins to heat up this fall I find myself jealous of countries like Japan and Mexico that legislatively regulate the length of election campaigns.  Candidates for elected office in Japan only have 12 days to campaign!  Imagine that!  I really wish the U.S. would follow suit and at least limit the length of campaigns - it seems like as soon as our officials are elected they need to start hitting the campaign trail again.  One positive however is that the typically long election cycle allows the stock markets to digest information slowly and price in the polls/data, so surprises aren't as likely.

3rd Quarter Market Snapshot

Index:                                        Closing 6/28/19     Closing 9/30/19       3rd Qtr 2019 +/-     2019 +/-

Dow Jones Industrial Average     26,599.96              26,916.36                1.19%                   15.38%

S&P 500                                       2,941.76                2,976.74                  1.19%                   18.74%

NASDAQ                                      8,006.24                7,999.34                  (0.08%)                 20.56%

(Source – Broadridge Investor Communication Solutions, Inc. - Quarterly Market Review: Jan 2019-Sep 2019.  Copyright 2019, Broadridge Investor Communication Solutions, Inc., All rights reserved.)

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.


On the business side

2019 has been quite the year personally, but professionally as well.  I've already surpassed 2018 on most, if not all, of my business metrics and I'm on pace to have my best year yet, which up until now was 2015.  Before 2016 is the time of my career I call the "BL" era or the "Before-Lesley" era.  Kidding...sort of...my number of late nights drastically reduced after I met my future wife on 10/30/15.  Anyways I share this with you not to toot my own horn, but to let you know 1 - that my approach of taking care of my existing clients first and then adding new clients strategically and methodically so as not to let client service suffer IS working, and 2 - that joining up with Jones Financial Group has been good for all of us here. 

As my business continues to grow I will continue to add staff and just recently increased the number of hours per week Claudia works with me.

Introductions

Speaking of growing my business, an introduction to someone concerned with the prospect of taking care of their parents or loved ones as they age would be perfect.  I'm sure you've heard me preach how important it is to plan and communicate aging family members desires before it's too late.  This is an area I'm passionate about and eager to offer my advice.


On the personal side

As I'm writing this it's Daddy Day Care day, which will be every Monday through June 2020 and then we'll re-evaluate.  Between Lesley, my mother-in-law and me (thanks Marsha/Mom/Mimi!), we're able to keep daycare to just two days a week through November.  When Lesley goes back to working at the office 5 days a week in December, they'll be at daycare 3 days a week.  Many folks say "oh that's not bad" - but many forget we've got TWO, so we'll be paying for 6 days of daycare a week!  Better than 10 I guess.

I look forward to being able to spend Mondays with the girls each week, and I am still available to return phone calls and emails as time permits.  I'm sure that will get a little easier to manage as they get older and get into a routine.  I also have 6:30-8:00 pm every Monday evening dedicated to call clients and catchup on the happenings of the day so I'm ready to go Tuesday morning.

Here's a funny pic:

Aggie might have a problem...

Oh and we just joined the exclusive club of minivan owners.  The engineer in me of course weighed all the options on a spreadsheet and between the dollars and cents combined with convenience it was impossible to justify any other style vehicle so we've got a new (to us) 2016 Toyota Siena.  That Industrial Engineer in me is very happy with efficiency of the push button sliding doors and trunk.  Getting the girls in and out of that car is a breeze compared to what we were doing before.

Another baseball season came and went, and the East Hanover Expos had a fantastic season, winning 15 of our last 16 games to go 16-4 and top the standings in the regular season but we sadly bowed out in the Semi-Finals of the post-season.  Our opponents were down to their last strike on 3 straight batters yet somehow managed to rally and beat us in extra innings of the deciding game.  I played well I think and since I had no major injuries this year (broken collar bone in 2018) I've got the go-ahead from Lesley to go back for next year.  Well at least I think I do...


Events

Putt It Into the Park was another success - glad folks could make it.

November 3rd is our annual holiday photo shoot, this year we're at Wildwood Park in Harrisburg.  This event is invitation only, so be on the lookout for yours and respond quickly to reserve your slot.  If we fill up quickly I may even add a second photographer this year.



eDelivery Options - Save the Planet!

For your Waddell & Reed / Ivy Investments Mutual Fund accounts:

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Waddell & Reed WealthLink Site

I continue to add users to the WealthLink site and this has been well received by clients.  Having one place to look at your entire financial picture is great, plus the Vault feature, which allows us to share documents, has drastically reduced the number of secure emails that I need to send clients.  This is also the software we use to generate financial plans for clients.

As I meet with clients I’m adding their information in but if you would like to gain access sooner, just let me know.

 

Enjoy the fall and catchup with you all in 2020 (where did 2019 go?)

Ken



This is meant for educational purposes only.  It should not be considered investment advice, nor does it constitute a recommendation to take a particular course of action. Please consult with a financial professional regarding your personal situation prior to making any financial related decisions.